Friday, 27 June 2014

E-Mini Dow futures
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1 trade, 1 win

Risk reward ratio 1 : 2.5


There are fewer opportunities with this strategy so some days there may be no trades

Wednesday, 25 June 2014

 Well it's been while since I posted on a regular basis, hopefully I can pick back up where I left off.

In amongst the nappy changing and working I've been looking at different approaches to futures trading and aim to begin test trading a new strategy tomorrow.  It also looks like a potentially interesting point in the markets with the precious metals appearing to have formed a low.

Interesting chart on margin debt, may be a harbinger for stocks;
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Implied volatilities back to pre-2007 levels
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Monday, 24 February 2014

Today's trade

E-Mini NASDAQ
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2 trades, 1 win and 1 loss


Euro futures

2 trades, 1 win and 1 loss

Sunday, 23 February 2014

3 trades on Friday;

E-Mini NASDAQ
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2 wins and 1 loss

Thursday, 20 February 2014

Yesterday's trade;

E-Mini NASDAQ
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4 trades yesterday, 4 losses



1 SIM trade on Euro, 1 win



An inauspicious return to the futures markets so far for PositiveDeviant

Wednesday, 19 February 2014

Yesterday's trade;

E-Mini NASDAQ
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3 trades, 3 losses


No SIM trades on Euro

Tuesday, 18 February 2014

Today's trade

E-Mini NASDAQ
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1 trade today, 1 loss




Euro futures
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1 SIM trade today, 1 breakeven



Markets very quiet today

Updated to chart to reflect break in trading;

P2_zpsbbee4ee3.png

My break from trading is over.  I had planned to stop during the festive period anyway however toward the end of December my old broker was unable to continue to provide the data that I need to trade, so I had to switch, that and I had a critical period at work that demanded all my attention until mid-February.

That's now over and I'm now with Crossland LLC who have really been first class in giving me everything I need.

So I'm back trading again as of today and looking to build on the progress I've made so far.

Just as a refresher I'll be trading E-Mini Dow Jones futures on my live account, and Euro futures on a SIM account.  I'd been researching trading Euro futures and the results were rather favourable so I'm looking for that to continue too, if I see 3 cumulative months of positive results I'll need to strongly consider including that as part of my trading.

Wednesday, 29 January 2014

I've moved over to Crossland LLC, Chicago based firm.  Just in process of getting set up with data, order routing etc



Looking forward to starting back where I left off.  I may not trade immediately from day 1, I maybe need to do some testing to check the data but certainly expect to be active within the market in the next 2 weeks.

Sunday, 12 January 2014

I'm looking into getting set up with either Dorman Trading or Advantage Futures at the moment, both appear to be reputable firms, I'm waiting on details of platforms, data feeds offered, costs involved etc.

Wednesday, 8 January 2014

Due to an issue with the Zen-Fire data provider I formerly used I am unable to trade and my broker has no ETA for when the issues will be resolved therefore I'm considering changing broker.
I'm looking at different factors, I found that the CFTC publish financial data on FCMs, so you can consider factors such as adjusted net capital, customer segregated funds etc for each FCM relative to each other.

See link below to PDF from the CFTC website with the latest data published;

http://www.cftc.gov/ucm/groups/public/@financialdataforfcms/documents/file/fcmdata1013.pdf


Another worthwhile link is the NFA where you can search for regulatory actions taken against any futures broker https://www.nfa.futures.org/basicnet


There's an article on Bloomberg from January last year looking at the ratio of excess capital relative to net adjusted capital for FCMs. May also be of interest.

"Adjusted net capital is the amount of regulatory capital available to meet the minimum net capital requirement as set by the CFTC. Excess net capital is the amount by which adjusted net capital exceeds the net capital requirement. The higher the ratio, the more capital the firm has available beyond what is required."


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-15/cftc-registered-firms-excess-to-net-capital-ratios-table-.html

Monday, 23 December 2013

No trading today, equity markets are rather quiet, low volume not suited to trading.  It's likely to be that way probably all week due to the time of year.
No trading today, equity markets are rather quiet, low volume not suited to trading.  It's likely to be that way probably all week due to the time of year.
From Marketwatch;

"Apple strikes deal with China Mobile: WSJ

(This story was published by The Wall Street Journal Digital Network's AllThingsD site at http://allthingsd.com/)

After years of talks, Apple confirmed on Sunday that it has at long last reached a deal with China Mobile to officially carry the iPhone.

China Mobile will start selling the iPhone 5s and 5c starting on Jan. 17, with pre-orders starting this Wednesday.

"Apple's iPhone is very much loved by millions of customers around the world," China Mobile Chairman Xi Guohua said in a statement. "We know there are many China Mobile customers and potential new customers who are anxiously awaiting the incredible combination of iPhone on China Mobile's leading network. We are delighted that iPhone on China Mobile will support our 4G/TD-LTE and 3G/TD-SCDMA networks, providing customers with high-speed mobile service."

Apple Tim Cook said he is excited to begin working with China Mobile.

"China is an extremely important market for Apple and our partnership with China Mobile presents us the opportunity to bring iPhone to the customers of the world's largest network," Cook said. "iPhone customers in China are an enthusiastic and rapidly growing group, and we can't think of a better way to welcome in the Chinese New Year than getting an iPhone into the hands of every China Mobile customer who wants one."

Even before the China Mobile deal, Apple has been making some inroads in the giant market. According to Counterpoint Research, the iPhone 5s, 5 and 5c were October's number 1, 2 and 4 top-selling smartphones, with Apple grabbing 12 percent of that month's market share."
Seems this is a very big deal for Apple.

Saturday, 21 December 2013

No Dow or Euro trades yesterday

The position after this week's trade;
Thepositions_zps2d2dcefe.png

Friday, 20 December 2013

I'm in a drawdown phase right now, the trading has been going really well, and at the point that I thought a drawdown would likely be due, it starts to happen.  People who have followed me over the years have probably seen that sometimes I get calls on the tops and bottoms of markets right.

It is therefore somewhat ironic that I also that a top in my equity curve occurred at the time that I felt that a drawdown would be due at some point.

Let's see what today brings.

Thursday, 19 December 2013

Dow futures
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5 trades, 1 win and 4 losses



Euro futures
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4 SIM trades, 3 wins and 1 loss

Wednesday, 18 December 2013

Dow futures
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2 wins and 2 losses (1 of the losses was an error entry made whilst trading on a train - far from ideal)

There ought to have been a further winning trade but my Internet connection went off-line for a period.  There was also a further signal that would have led to a winning trade but that came after my trading cut off time rule by 37 seconds, and I need to be disciplined with plan rules.

Euro futures
18th6E_zps0d7f2b9d.png


2 SIM trades, 1 win and 1 loss


The big news today was the Fed is due to taper QE3 and my goodness the market loved it.  A very interesting day as the news brought a massive influx of volume and liquidity into Dow futures that enabled my strategy to work very well indeed and this appears to have given me new insight into why the strategy appears to work so well on Euro futures. The volume and liquidity on Euro futures seems a lot more stable and constant and this I think is key when using order flow to trade.  Although it does move in waves it is smoother and less prone to erratic behaviour often seen on stock index futures.

Yesterday's trades

Dow futures
17thYM_zps5cbae654.png
2 trades, 2 losses



Euro futures
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1 SIM trade, 1 loss

Monday, 16 December 2013

1 Dow futures trade today
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1 winner


5 SIM trades on Euro futures
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3 wins, 1 loss and 1 break even

Some nice Euro trades today

Charts to follow when I'm back home at the end of the week (I'm trading remotely using Teamviewer and an IPad)