Friday, 30 March 2012

There were three other trades today, none positive, not so good....I'll refrain from posting the gory details. All of them legitimate trades according to my strategy but none with a positive bent.

I think probably it's time for a;

It's quite disappointing to admit, but my strategy does not appear to be a big winner. At one point I was up double digit percentage points, now it's down to single digits, although I withdrew some to buy stuff.

Nevertheless I'm not disappointed about the monetary aspect, it's more the fact that my second strategy, that I thought would be a big winner, is only a slight winner. I'm not doing this because I want to make a few percentage points over the base rate, I'm doing it because I want to prove to myself I can be in that top 1%, not the top 5% or 10%.
Long at 15:25, filled at 2751.75, my custom indicator suggested a long;

Stopped out for a loss of 2 points.

Thursday, 29 March 2012

Short at 16:09, filled at 2753.50, market started selling off down to as low as 2741.  Moved stop to protect 7.5 points of profit;


Dollar Index;

It looked as though the dollar index was in line to rally up and through apparent resistance at 79.52, causing a further sell off in the NADSAQ, but it didn't come (at least not yet), market rallied up taking out my stop for a 7.5 point gain.

Wednesday, 28 March 2012

The RANsquawk service was pointing out that today from around 16:20 onwards what appeared to be a sell program was was setting off a whole load of stops, apparently it leaves a certain pattern on the chart;
Couple of trades so far today;

An early short (too early) at 14:37 based on divergence, filled at 2783, stopped out pretty much immediately for a loss of 2 points.  Further sell signal at 14:44 again based on divergences, short filled at 2786.75, this was slightly better with the market selling off 6 points, moved stop to breakeven before being stopped out during a rally up to my stop, the market then continued to sell off down to as low as 2771.75, slightly annoying since the stop only got taken out by 0.75 of a point but that's trading.

Trade 1

Trade 2

Currency divergence in addition to sell signal for trade 2;

Close but no cigar................................

Tuesday, 27 March 2012

Couple of trades today, both based on divergence and both stopped out, loss of 3.25 points;

Monday, 26 March 2012

Short at 15:33 based on custom indicator divergence, filled at 2751.25, stopped out a few minutes later for a 1.25 point loss;

Thursday, 22 March 2012

Took a long at 18:05, filled at 2729.  Stopped out almost immediately for a loss of 2 points.  Had divergence on both my custom indicator and between E-Mini NASDAQ and various currencies, both suggesting some upside.

Tuesday, 20 March 2012

Short at 17:18, filled at 2722 following some divergence on my custom indicator, market sold off slightly, moved stop close to breakeven, market rallied up taking out my stop for a 1 point loss;

Today's score

Running 1         Trading   Nil

I wasn't able to trade last week, too busy, however there was a nice set-up last Wednesday;

Clear upside fakeout.

Friday, 9 March 2012

I love this image;

Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images

I got it printed and hung it on the door to my trading room, I got it printed by one of those companies that do these types of things.  Anyway, it wasn't the best quality (since I got the image from an internet search) and I wanted it larger so I ordered a large print from the owner of the image, it came through and I took it to my local art shop to be framed today. 

The lady owner of the shop pointed to the picture and said;

"Ahhhhhhh, so you're in here somewhere aren't you?"

"You got it in one", I said.

Not strictly correct (but I am very much in that picture).

A great moment.
Had a long at 20:34, filled at 2640.75.  Bit late in the day however there have been many late day rallies previously and I had a signal to buy.   I held on until 21:12, 3 minutes before the CME futures markets close, for a gain of 2 points.

Entry and exit

There was a story on RANsquawk that ISDA had effectively declared that Greece had indeed been through a credit event and therefore CDS would pay out and the market did nothing whatsoever, this was a situation where RAN seemed to get the news way ahead of the market.  I don't typically chase news stories but I did have a sell signal forming just prior to the sell off however I couldn't fully confirm it as a sell signal (there had also been several false alarms earlier in the day), by the time it was apparent as a sell signal it was too late.  The market only sold off a few points anyway, surprisingly.

Technical analysis of the NASDAQ today;

Monday, 5 March 2012

The den of tranquility
Opportunity for a short at 15:09, went short, filled at 2640.75. Market sold off following positive Jan factory orders and postive ISM non manufacturing for February. A classic sell the news scenario.

I had divergence on my currency divergence chart and also a divergence sell signal on my custom indicator;

I closed it after a 4 point gain. This ladies and gentlemen is a classic example of how not to trade. It was a very well executed entry married to an incredibly badly executed exit.

I didn't get a particularly great night's rest last night so I suppose I shouldn't kick myself too hard. I wasn't really in the mood for trading today and I wanted to just get some points and switch the screens off, the correct decision was of course just to move the stop much closer to the price and let the market decide whether the position continues or not.

It's a beautiful sunny day outside, I'm off out for a nice walk and some fresh air.

Friday, 2 March 2012

Took a short at 19:12, filled at 2639.25, market rallied taking out my stop for a 1.5 point loss;

Since the Russell 2000 was selling off I thought it was looking quite bearish, I didn't have a signal per se but my indicator was headed lower.  In hindsight I was just looking for an excuse to get short.

It's a marathon, not a sprint