Tuesday, 31 July 2012

Couple of longs today, initially at 07:51, filled at 2643.25, and a further one at 13:41, filled at 2643.25;



Each stopped out for a 2 point loss.   There was some positive news today, with Case/Schiller home prices coming in at -0.7% against expectations of -1.5%, Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index coming in at 53.7 against expectations of 52.5 and  Consumer confidence came in at 65.9 against expectations of 61.8.


The market is flat to down, possibly due to the FED rate decision and policy statement tomorrow.

Monday, 30 July 2012

Couple of trades today, a short at 10:33 (filled at 2638.50) and another short at 13:22 (filled at 2643.50), both stopped out for a 2 point loss;



Friday, 27 July 2012

Buy signal at 10:12, got long at 2574.75;


E-Mini NASDAQ futures


The market spiked down to 2572.50, taking out my stop for a 2 point loss.   Later on in the day it transpired that the low of the day was in fact 2572.50, just 0.25 below where my stop was so I was perhaps slightly unfortunate to have been removed from that particular opportunity.


Later, at 13:03, there was another buy signal, went long at 2581.50;
E-Mini NASDAQ futures 


I got in at the correct level this time, almost the exact low of that small down phase.  The market rallied up to 2593 taking out my profit limit order for a gain of 10 points.


The back drop here was that the US Q2 GDP number was out at 13:30, and it came in at 1.5% against expectations of 1.4%.  Later on there was further positive news from Merkel and Hollande (Zerohedge excerpt);

"Well it had to come, hope was fading. Special delivery via telephone from her vacation (via Bloomberg)...

    • *MERKEL, HOLLANDE READY TO DO ANYTHING TO PROTECT EURO REGION
    • *MERKEL, HOLLANDE: EU INSTITUTIONS, STATES MUST MEET COMMITMENTS
    • *PASOK'S VENIZELOS UNDERLINED NEED TO EXTEND PROGRAM TO TROIKA

Translation (for non-European-speakers): Europe promises to talk much more. Also promises to not actually do anything as long as it takes.

    • Germany, France: must implement June summit conclusions quickly. Market ramps on hope that the event that ramped it in June, is implemented
In summary, the Eurozone is committed to preserving itself. Truly breaking news which will trigger all EURUSD stop losses"



Altogether the market soared higher, here's what happened after I closed out that trade;
E-Mini NASDAQ futures



This is another sign on my journey here that I need to be scaling out of positions, in order to make more of these occasions; larger trends or trend days like today where the market just keeps going one way.

Thursday, 26 July 2012

Wednesday, 25 July 2012

Sell signal at 07:46, filled at 2526.50, stopped out for a 2 point loss;

Tuesday, 24 July 2012

One short at 13:08, filled at 2576.75;



Stopped out in fairly short order for a 2.5 point loss, got skinned half a point of slippage on the exit.  The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for July came in at -17 against expectations of 0.  

A big drop to a low not seen since 23rd September 2008, 8 days after the collapse of Lehman brothers...;


Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index 


Doesn't bode well, this should sharpen the market's acuity and focus on upcoming data in the coming days/weeks.


What is interesting is how markets seem to "pull together" sometimes at turns, almost as if the correlations between the markets peak out closer to 1 then fall off following the turn...;


The turn here is 2 mins after the open.weeks.

Monday, 23 July 2012

No signals to trade today.  Nice big down day today with an amazing bounce right back up again.

Sunday, 22 July 2012



MUHUHUHUHAHAHAAAAAAAAA 



I'm not doing quite so well with the Lumosity



Clearly there are a lot of people out there more obsessed with that than I am.

Friday, 20 July 2012

Three shorts today, the first 2 at 08:21 (filled at 2653.25), and at 08:48 (filled at 2655.50).  Both stopped out for a 2 point loss.  The next was at 10:14 (filled at 2656.50), the market sold off down to 2646.50 taking out my limit order for a 10 point gain.

E-Mini NASDAQ;



That last short turned out to be right at the top, with the market continuing to sell off to as low as 2618 at one point (so far). 


I had thought there was a higher probability of a down day earlier due to some divergences between equity and currency markets;

Thursday, 19 July 2012

Yesterday's trade

Buy signal at 08:51, went long at 2633, stopped out for a 2 point loss.

E-Mini NASDAQ


Too early.

Wednesday, 18 July 2012

Short at 08:24, filled at 2581.50.  Market went sideways before taking out my stop for a 2 point loss.

Second trade was a long at 13:58, market went sideways into the open...;
E-Mini NASDAQ


....then down to 2576.75 taking out my stop for a 2 point loss.  The market then rallied 35 points higher (so far).  I was stopped out from a great trade for the sake of 0.5 of a point.

That's unfortunate, but comes with the territory when trading futures.  Perhaps it might have been more wise to place my stop just below the low that occurred before I entered the trade...

Tuesday, 17 July 2012

GLD-SPY (Weekly)



GLD-SPY (Daily)


Maybe something clearer will emerge over the next few days.




~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


There were no signals for me to trade today.

Monday, 16 July 2012

Short at 11:49, filled at 2572.50.  Following this US Retail Sales (MoM) June came in at -0.5% against expectations of 0.2% with Retail Sales ex autos coming in at 0.4% against expectations of 0.0%, therefore I expected this trade to be a winner however the dollar sold off rapidly, keeping the NASDAQ stable, before the NASDAQ rallied up taking out my stop for a 2 point loss.  Following this the expected sell off came, down to 2561.25.


Dollar Index Futures




Further signal at 15:14, a long filled at 2564.50.  Market rallied up to 2574.50 hitting my limit order for a 10 point gain.
E-Mini NASDAQ futures

Friday, 13 July 2012

Buy signal at 12:46, filled at 2548, stopped out for a 2 point loss;





I'm relatively pleased with the way this new strategy trades, it's more consistent than the previous one, in fact looking back at the stats for the previous one they are not very good at all (although I still managed to make a modest profit from it).

The following is a chart of the model equity curve (points per contract) since the start of May.  This chart represents the points gain per contract had I been able to trade each and every one of the signals that Strategy II provides (and I am not able to do this as I have a regular (intensely dull) job that pays the bills and boy does it get in the way of this!).




It's important to stress this is not what I have achieved with the new strategy (my actual results chart is more modest as it's difficult to trade all the signals due to my "9-5" (pre)occupation ).  As a result of this chart in comparison to the actual more modest results I've achieved, at the start of the week I declared my new motto as "Execute or Die".  My strategy has thus far displayed great positive expectation so the more I trade it, the more I'll gain from it.   This sometimes means trading using my mobile and initiating trades whilst on a train, sitting at my desk or even more unusual places where trading is not typically on one's mind (or ought not to be)...

I managed to execute all but 2 of the signals this week, not bad considering I was "pre-occupied".  Next week I can trade from my home desk all week, thankfully.

Thursday, 12 July 2012

Sell signal at 09:27, filled at 2553.75.




Market sold off down to 2543.75, hitting my profit order for a 10 point gain.   Seemed like a decent trade, until you see what happened next...;





A deeper sell off, apparently caused by "overriding worries about global economic growth " (that's according to marketwatch.com).  A further 26.25 points at it's lowest point for the day.

Once I've traded my new strategy for a while, and become accustomed to the performance and the results I can reasonably expect, I can look to start trying different ideas out for scaling out of positions.

Wednesday, 11 July 2012

Couple of trades today, a short at 10:27, filled at 2583.50, and a long at 13:57, filled at 2577.50, each stopped out for a 2.25 point loss;



Tuesday, 10 July 2012

Three trades today, a long at 08:42 (filled at 2597), stopped out for a 2 point loss, a long at 09:15 (filled at 2596), a gain of 10 points....
E-Mini NASDAQ futures

The market was rallying very strongly during that second long however trading from a mobile (my only option this week) makes it difficult to make quick adjustments.


Further trade, a short at 14:06 (filled at 2615), this was similar to the first trade in that it was directionally correct but just too early;
E-Mini NASDAQ futures


Stopped out for a loss of 2 points.  In fact the market is now closed (around 40 points down from where I'd entered that short).





~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


This next chart shows how the NASDAQ diverged away from various currencies, this is a chart is from yesterday's trade, I may comment on this later in the week, a large fake out move to the upside, corrected very quickly;


Monday, 9 July 2012

A couple of trades today, a long at 8:38 ( filled at 260.75) and a short at 12:09 (2604.50);



Each of them stopped out for a 2 point loss.


Previously I was having occasional issues with my laptop overheating and I think was responsible for it crashing a couple of times.  I keep it on a wooden desktop and I've found out that wood is a very poor conductor of heat so the heat generated by the laptop can only escape via the surrounding air or wooden desktop.  


However, one of the gifts that Mrs PositiveDeviant and I received for our wedding was the following;


A slate serving tray.

Now what has this got to do with my occasionally overheating laptop?  Well quite a lot.

At 25 degrees centigrade the thermal conductivity of wood (oak) is 0.17 W/(m·K)   [that's Watts per Metre Kelvin].



Whereas the thermal conductivity of slate is a far higher 2.01 W/(m·K), considerably higher than wood.  


You can probably guess where this is headed....


I've unscrewed the handles and left those in the box and my laptop is now sat on a new slate base, that now acts as a heat sink for my laptop and not a serving tray for canap├ęs.

Seems to work quite well so far.

Saturday, 7 July 2012


I can't say exactly when it happened but gradually over the last few years I've grown to become extremely competitive;



What is it with men my age anyway? 






No trades yesterday.

It's been a frustrating week, mainly because I f***ed it up.  On monday, poor execution cost an opportunity loss on a decent trade, then yesterday I had a profitable set up for a trade which I fluffed up meaning a loss for the week instead of what should have been a decent profit. I've made some changes to the layout of my main screen that should prevent the same mistakes happening again.

I won't be using the Pesavento patterns while I trade for the moment (It proved distracting yesterday and there's no point having it on all the time since I'm only checking it on an end of day basis at the moment)

Thursday, 5 July 2012

4 trades today, initially a short at 8:36;



Stopped out for a 2 point loss.



There was a further signal to short coming up to 15:00 however I misread it, going short too early;



I then took the actual signal that occured as well, going short again, each of those got stopped out for a 2 point loss.  Slightly unlucky since the market then sold off 15 points.


Then a further short at 16:22, the market sold off  around 6 points;


...before rallying up to take me out at breakeven.


Not so good.

Tuesday, 3 July 2012

No trades today, and the markets closed 3 hours early for the July 4th holiday tomorrow.  Gold seems to be taking off lately, it's too early to say for sure but it appears to be related to the recent jump in Crude oil.  

Monday, 2 July 2012

Buy signal at 08:22, I wasn't watching the markets at this time but spotted it shortly thereafter, put a limit order in at 2604.25 and it came within 0.25 of a point of getting filled.  Frustrating.  Market rallied 14 points thereafter...




This was partly due trading using a mobile.  At home  I used to have my charts and indicators on one monitor, currency divergence chart on another monitor, and a dollar index and order entry system on another screen.  Works great at home, but with the mobile switching screens takes a few seconds (switching from the NASDAQ chart to the order entry screen).  Those few seconds cost me the opportunity of getting into a good trade so from today I've put the order entry system on the same screen as the chart with the indicators.  It'll be much easier doing things this way.


My new set-up (on screen 1);




On screen 2 I have AUD/USD, EUR/USD, AUD/JPY and NASDAQ futures;


Here we see secondary confirmation (by way of divergence) of the heightened probability of a rally in the NASDAQ, in the lead up to 08:22.