Monday, 26 September 2011

Post date 23rd September (forgot to post this at the time...)

I think this may be the end of the cyclical bull market in silver. As a result of yesterday's drop my NAV dropped by 2.6%.

Previously in April, I bought puts on SLV, and sold half of my physical right at the top, I then cashed in the puts between $33.75 and $35, and bought back my physical position at $37. At the time people were rubbishing the idea of it being a top (apart from Bubb). My thinking was that the bull market would continue, but that the price would have to reach and exceed $50 for this to be confirmed to be the case in my mind. Selling after a drop is not typically what you do in markets, however, the meaning of yesterday's price action and the price action in the markets from a macro perspective could be very significant in my opinion.

After much vacillating, late yesterday I sold my entire physical silver position for US Dollars, I got out at $36.4. I am now entirely in cash.

Today I see silver down a further 10%, so at the moment it looks like the correct decision, but it's too early to say.

Only time will tell.

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