Friday 18 November 2011

[quote name='PositiveDeviant' timestamp='1321639427' post='232326']
There was another potential signal at 17:11 however it seemed marginal whether it was a valid signal or not, and it was quite similar to signals I took on my old strategy, and I'm deliberately avoiding those as they tended to result in 50/50 probability trades;
[/quote]

This  is important since the trades using my previous strategy (double   tops/bottoms on my indicator) were not as high a probability as those   using my new stratgegy, so I need to properly differentiate between the   two, when trading.

I went back through my trade data from when I  was trading between 1st  March and 8th August, but re-assessed it to  check what impact would be  had by;

Using a 10 point profit target and stop moved to breakeven after 5 points.

It  turns out 52% of the signals would have resulted in a profit, not  much  different to the 50/50 using the 8 point trailing stop strategy.     Previously, only 61% of the signals reached the 4 point mark, whereas   with the new strategy 72% of the signals reached the 4 point mark   (during the backtest).

Previously with ThinkorSwim the data was not good, so in order not to  be confused by many false signals I had to  set my indicator to a 5  minute timeframe, effectively meaning I was  always several minutes late  getting into the trades.

In order to  properly define what constitutes a signal I'll need to go  through the  full data set for the back test with my new strategy.

So far it  seems reasonable to state that the diverging higher  high/lower low in  the NASDAQ needs to be at least 1.5 points beyond the  prior  high/low, and the PositiveDeviance Indicator needs to display a  divergence  the opposite way by 0.040.   Also for the backtest I was  using a 3  minute delay following the production of the high/low before  the trade  was classed as having been taken.  I may shorten that to 2  minutes since  the data is of a much higher quality now.  I may also  annotate the  charts more during trading, as part of the process leading  up to getting  into the market.

NASDAQ to HH/LL>1.5
PDI point to point >0.040

[up to MT DBDT DIVERGENCE 16/09/11]

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