Saturday, 4 February 2012

Paradox and Irony

I've not had much time to post or trade recently due to some personal health and legal issues, but they are mostly resolved now, nothing serious.

the Perception of my Psychology

Over time writing a journal I have noticed that quite often I tend to pose questions at turning points, that point to the truth. (for BMT readers note that these are from another forum I post on, but I linked to the original posts)


[At the 2011 top in silver]
[quote name='PositiveDeviant' timestamp='1303477647' post='213020']
Is this the type of over-emotional response you might see near some form of top?
from post http://www.greenener...ndpost&p=213020

[On the top in silver marking a top in equity markets]
3rd May 2011
[quote]since Silver's rise could be said to be correlated to excess liquidity in the market, (and it may be finished for now) could this be a general marker for commodities and the equity markets?[/quote]from post http://www.greenener...ndpost&p=214123

This was one day after the top in the S&P500;
S&P500 futures - weekly chart

[On the sharp dive in Natural Gas]
[quote name='PositiveDeviant' timestamp='1327002035' post='237456']
Is Natural Gas going to hit a low very soon?

from post http://www.greenener...56

It hit a low within two days, although it's not yet clear whether this is a major low.

[On the situation with Silver]
[quote name='PositiveDeviant' timestamp='1325166220' post='235885']
The emotions of silver bulls and North Koreans are correlating 1 to 1 right now.

Surely this must be the low.

post from http://www.greenener...85

And that was the day of the low, although I bought GDXJ instead of silver. This last example was personally very interesting for me since the post was originally intended as a post to mock those holding silver, by suggesting that they were all devastated, since silver had nearly halfed since the top, and many will have held on all the way along. However I realised that since I was correlating silver bulls with North Koreans 1 to 1 , and that since the North Koreans had hit rock bottom with the death of their leader, this was likely to also mean a low for silver. Particularly so as I realised I was becoming engaged in the process of creating a situation with a potentially ironic outcome. If I'd have simply posted the joke, then clearly, paradoxically, the joke would have been on me since by engaging in the process of mocking others, ironically, it would have been done at the expense of exploiting the opportunity.

(There was a lot of abuse hurled at Romans Holiday by those holding silver, and sometimes this was done by people who should have been selling their silver, rather than holding onto it as it declined, whilst trying to make a joke of another. - A similar situation containing paradox and irony.)

It would seem that truth can be found by asking a big question, or by being perceptive to situations that could lead to an ironic outcome.

In some ways it could be viewed that I reversed the paradox (by buying GDJX) to create the opposite of the ironic outcome (making gains as opposed to trying make satircal comedy, and missing an opportunity).

I hope this makes sense to those reading this, it's difficult to explain well.

(There is another element to this that I may write about later and that is the divergence between short and long term outcomes and how these can diverge into complete opposites on a long enough timeline - another paradox)

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