Wednesday, 8 August 2012

I have been generally quite bullish on stocks recently in terms of being the better looking ugly sister, although this has been mainly based on the fact that I believe the bullish sentiment on the US Dollar, and conversely the bearish sentiment on the Euro, is overdone.

It's been a while since I've looked at the following, I've now added TRAN - the  NASDAQ TRANSPORTATION INDEX, mainly because it seems to be a perennial topic of discussion among the (principally) day traders chatting about the RANSQUAWK live global news feed.   The general consensus is that it can be seen as a leading indicator, over and above the Dow Jones Transportation Index, although as mentioned this is a group whose main focus is an intraday term.
Ignore the values on the right hand scale (I've multiplied some of the underlyings so they all fit on the above chart)

The next chart shows the divergences in a different way;

At first glance it seems bearish that, both transportation indexes are diverging lower, however since TRAN appears to be close towards confirming a clear break above the downward sloping trend line (Chart 1), I personally am looking for $DJT to perform the same clear break above the downward sloping trendline to confirm my tentative bullish posture.

Euro sentiment from;

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